the ninth wave

For centuries the West has held outsized global power, even though Western societies were always a demographic minority. That dominance is now slipping, and although the world is still built on Western foundations (established institutions, science, law, finance) the West can no longer assume it sets the terms for everyone else. The real question is what kind of Western dominance is fading, and what might replace it.

After 1945 the USA forged a politically unified West, but then diluted that cohesion by framing itself as leader of the entire Free World, defined mostly by what it opposed. This logic survived the Cold War and eventually turned into a universalist liberal project that depended on having enemies to justify itself. When liberal democracy failed to spread globally (and when the US electorate doubled down on America First) the gap between Western ambitions and Western capabilities became impossible to ignore.

The West now faces three paths.

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Although this month's topic is The AI Arms Race, I'd like to use one of the suggested topics for next month and go ahead of schedule a bit, and post on that topic now: Democracy in the Algorithm Age

In today's digitally saturated world, elections no longer hinge solely on speeches, rallies, or television ads. They increasingly depend on data. The turning point came with the 2008 campaign of Barack Obama, when his team embraced Web 2.0 tools: social networks, email, online video, to reach voters directly. More than half of adult Americans used the Internet in the 2008 election, and many became politically active online: donors, volunteers, and grassroots mobilizers.
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But Obama’s team did more than broadcast broadly: they built detailed voter profiles, using public records and behavioral data to segment the electorate into fine-grained groups: young voters, minorities, new voters, even niche social networks never before used by major campaigns. By doing so, they could tailor communications, fundraise online, and create a sense of community among supporters. This data-driven approach didn't just expand reach, it changed the relationship between citizen and campaign, arguably revitalizing democratic participation for many previously disengaged voters.
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